NGFS released the fourth edition of its long-term climate scenarios for forward-looking climate risks assessments in November 2023 with an updated release in March 2024. The first version of NGFS climate scenarios was released in 2020 (Phase 1), with updated versions released in 2021 (Phase 2) and 2022 (Phase 3) and the most recent in 2023 (Phase 4).
Key changes in the latest version include:
- Updates of latest economic and climate data, and country-level commitments to reach net-zero emissions made until March 2023.
- Latest trends in renewable energy technologies, key mitigation technologies and the energy-market implications of the war in Ukraine.
- Addition of a new scenario:
- “Too-little-too-late” Fragmented World scenario: Illustrates the adverse consequences of delayed and divergent climate policy ambitions globally. This replaces Divergent Net Zero
We have updated our tool based on the data from NGFS Phase 4. Some of the changes include:
- Higher carbon prices: Carbon prices in Phase 4 Net Zero scenario are higher compared to Phase 3.
- Higher energy prices: Oil prices rise gradually in all scenarios of NGFS Phase 4 compared to Phase 3, reflecting impact of Russia-Ukraine war.
- Faster emission reductions: NGFS Phase 4 has more rapid and intense emission reduction of 99% under Net Zero by 2045 compared to 95% reduction in Phase 3.
